Standard Chartered Bank: Risk Reward Update

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Standard Chartered Bank: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Standard Chartered Bank (STAN.L)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Loan growth (%) 2.0 3.8 4.4 4.4

NIM (%) 2.03 1.98 1.85 1.85

Core PPoP growth (%) (9.2) 34.6 (0.7) 14.5

Credit Costs (%) 0.23 0.28 0.31 0.30

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

UK and global regulatory developments. RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Macroeconomic indicators, particularly in Asia. Faster-than-expected macroeconomic growth

Short-term interest rates. and resilience, causing better-than-expected Sales / 23,362

asset quality Revenue 22,451 24,223

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Better-than-expected non-interest income (US$, mn) 23,292

growth

0-10% Europe ex UK Rates trough above 3%

0-10% India Bank able to return capital sooner than Net income 5,672

0-10% Mainland China currently expected (US$, mn) 5,455 6,225

0-10% North America 5,841

0-10% UK RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

10-20% MEA Incremental deterioration in asset quality

2.66 APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Greater pressure on interest rates EPS 50-60% 2.28 2.92 China and India Asian macro climate deteriorates (US$)

2.70Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Failure to deliver on cost targets

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING DPS 0.79

MS ALPHA MODELS (US$) 0.69 1.00

Inst. Owners, % Active 85.2% 0.81

4/5 3 Month HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.2x

MOST Horizon HF Sector Net Exposure 18.8% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Quintile inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market