Heineken NV: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Heineken NV: Risk Reward Update

Y '26 MAY '27

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 11

May 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE €109.00 BASE CASE €75.00 BEAR CASE €50.00

Implied ~19.7x our bull case CY26e EPS Implied ~14.6x our base case CY26e EPS Implied ~10.0x our bear case CY26e EPS

Resilient consumer spending supports faster Our PT implies 14.6x CY26e P/E, vs Staples We factor in a recession scenario, assuming

volume growth in 2026 than in our base currently on 16.5x. We note that our DCF is downtrading across key markets as inflation

case: we assume OSG of 5% per annum. notably lower than the valuation implied by squeezes consumer disposable income.

Gross margin uplift and cost savings see a P/E approach, reflecting the fact that Annual OSG of 2%, after flattish FY26

2026 EBIT margin recover to 16.2%, up depreciation in the P&L represents only (reflecting the energy price shock) delays a

75bps yoy, with 50bps increase per annum 60% of capex + lease costs, and thus on FCF gross / EBIT margin recovery, and while our

thereafter. In a P/E valuation, the shares re- based valuation, Heineken fares less well. bear case margin in FY26 is 50bps lower

rate to ~18.2x CY26e P/E (~10% premium to We adjust for this point by assuming that than 2025, in 2027 it falls a further 150bps