Heineken Downgrade to Neutral: Awaiting new leadership and strategic clarity

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Heineken Downgrade to Neutral: Awaiting new leadership and strategic clarity

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

13 May 2026

Heineken ▼Neutral

Previous: Overweight

Downgrade to Neutral: Awaiting new leadership and HEIN.AS, HEIA NA

Price (12 May 26):€64.62

strategic clarity ▼Price Target (Dec-27):€70.00

Prior (Dec-27):€90.00

We downgrade Heineken to Neutral from Overweight and lower our PT to €70, as European Food Producers,

we believe the stock is unlikely to outperform in the near term while the market Household & Personal Care

awaits the appointment of a CEO and the subsequent unveiling of an updated Products, Beverages & Tobacco

strategy. Although Heineken delivered a strong start to the year (as with the rest of Celine Pannuti, CFA AC

the beer sector) the volume outperformance was primarily due to favorable timing (44-20) 7134-7123

effects (such as Easter phasing and Tet) and relatively easy yoy comparisons. We celine.pannuti@jpmorgan.com

continue to expect a sequential improvement in 2026 with JPMe forecasting +1.6% Samuel Lewis

organic total volume growth and +2.5% organic sales growth (vs +MSD% LFL for samuel.lewis@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

CARLB and ABI). The stock has underperformed ytd reflecting its exposure to

both Europe and Africa/Asia, leadership uncertainties and share losses in Specialist Sales contact details:

Americas, resulting in Heineken shares trading at a DD% discount to European Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

Beverages (vs MSD% historical discount), and lagging the beverages c.-12%. European Consumer

Nevertheless, we see limited potential for a re-rating given ongoing uncertainty (44-20) 3493-3709

around leadership and the potential for another transition year as a new CEO adds olivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com