Barrick Mining Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Barrick Mining Model Update

Bennett Moore AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-0188 12 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

bennett.moore@jpmchase.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Barrick Mining (Overweight; Price Target: $58.00)

Investment Thesis

We rate shares of B Overweight with a Dec-26 price target of $58, underpinned by its world-

class reserve base, compelling leverage to both gold and copper, growing shareholder

returns, and a strong organic growth pipeline targeting +30% GEO production over the

coming years. The latter entails a mix of brownfield and greenfield projects, including the

world class Fourmile gold deposit and Reko Diq copper/gold project. The latter has been

delayed as of Apr’26, and it’s unclear when/if it will proceed, so we assign little-to-no value

in our NPV. We also see potential for a minority IPO listing for its Tier-One North American

assets as a means to unlock incremental value, while potential asset sales from exiting riskier

jurisdictions is an attractive call option. That being said, Barrick is undergoing a leadership

change and has had a mixed track record on meeting guidance.

Valuation

Our price target, which uses the commodity strip, is based on a 50-50 weighted NAV and

EV/EBITDA multiple, including adjustments for off-balance sheet items such as

environmental rehabilitation obligations. We use a 6.0x 2027E EV/EBITDA multiple, in-

line with Barrick’s historical average, and a 1.0x P/NPV multiple. We assign little-to-no

NPV for Loulo-Gounko and Reko Diq and use an elevated discount rate for its riskier

jurisdictions in Africa. While our modeling generally only accounts for defined reserves,

we do ascribe value for Fourmile based on the current resource estimate, which is likely to

grow significantly.