U.S. REITs: 1Q26 Retail REIT Recap

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U.S. REITs: 1Q26 Retail REIT Recap

Equity Research

11 May 2026

U.S. REITs

1Q26 Retail REIT Recap

Solid overall quarter, with several beats and (modest) FY26

guidance increases. We are raising our PTs by an average +8%

on a combo of higher estimates and cap rate reductions. U.S. REITs NEUTRAL

Unchanged

Following the conclusion of 1Q26 earnings season (with SPG the only remaining reporter within U.S. REITs

our broader Retail coverage), we are increasing our 2026 and 2027 FFO/sh estimates modestly Richard Hightower

vs. prior, while our price targets rise by an average of +8% in light of an across-the-board +1 212 526 8768

25bp reduction in our going-in cap rate assumptions. We remain Overweight REG and KIM richard.hightower@barclays.com

BCI, USand are Equal Weight FRT, PECO, and SKT. (We will update our SPG estimates following the

company's 1Q26 earnings release the evening of Monday, May 11.) Sydnie Rohme

+1 212 526 5157

• Model Changes (Figure 1, Figure 49): We make a variety of adjustments to our Retail REIT sydnie.rohme@barclays.com

models following 1Q26 earnings, the most notable of which include recent transaction BCI, US

announcements and guidance changes along with our usual refresh of the forward SOFR

curve, vis-à-vis our debt refinancing and related assumptions. Additionally, we are reducing

our cap rates by 25bps across our Retail coverage universe, in order to reflect the

ongoing strength in the private market for high-quality shopping center assets. Net of all

changes, our 2026 and 2027 FFO/sh estimates rise by an average of +0.4% to +0.5%, and our

price targets increase by an average of +8%. We forecast +4.1% and +4.4% Core FFO/sh

growth across our Retail coverage in 2026 and 2027, respectively, and we are in line with /