Xcel Energy Inc.: European NDR Key Takeaways

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Xcel Energy Inc.: European NDR Key Takeaways

Barclays | Xcel Energy Inc.

below the Michigan average, and 28% below the Minnesota state average. We further flag that

on our own affordability analysis at the total system level, XEL's bill outlook is bottom quartile

across our coverage universe.

Making Clear Progress Across the CapEx Pipeline: The additional pipeline is starting to

solidify as XEL is converting the $10bn in infrastructure investment into approved capex that

will be rolled into the capex plan in 3Q26. $7bn is already secured, and we see more catalysts in

the 2H26. The projects that are in the additional pipeline include the approval of 800MW of

company-owned NTP, NSP approval in which two-thirds of the generation and storage is

contracted by Google for data center projects, and the Crawfish Draw transmission project. The

company in service dates for the $7bn plus is as follows: 765kV line in SPS and the scheduled in

service date is 2031 and majority is expected to fall into the current five year plan; The 800MW of

Colorado generation is due to be in service by 2030 which will be 600MW of wind and gas. These

projects are expected to be within the current capital plan timeline, with some projects

extending into 2031. The remaining bucket to be approved includes transmission line projects

from the 2025 SPP ITP, MISO tranche 2.2, and generation to support 3GW of incremental data

center demand.

We see RAB growth moving closer to 13% on the new update, with EPS closer to 10-11%

through 2030. Taking into account that every $1bn of capital is 20-25bps to the RAB CAGR, and

XEL has already locked in ~$7bn of this, there is natural upward pressure on the plan. Mgmt

typically targets 40% equity financing for incremental capital, but we wouldn't doubt this