Through the timing trough

研报英文原文证据摘录

Through the timing trough

Equity Research - 13 May 2026 06:42 CEST

Reasons:Camurus

Estimate changes

Through the timing trough Post-results comment

• Miss driven by short-term headwinds but long-term case intact

• Risk-adj. P/E of 22x/13x/7x in 2027e/2028e/2029e

• Risk-adj. revenue/EBIT CAGRs of ~35%/~50% through 2030e

Miss driven by short-term headwinds Healthcare

CAMX reported revenue 11% below and EBIT 29% below ABGSCe/

cons due to: i) phasing and summer holidays in Australia; ii) continued Estimate changes (%)

reimbursement issues in the UK; iii) transition of the UK distributor model 2026e 2027e 2028e

in late '25; iv) overall FX headwinds; and v) weak translation from US Sales -3.0 -6.0 -3.8

prescription numbers to sales, indicating unfavourable phasing and EBIT -7.5 -11.9 -8.5

gross-to-net adjustments. Positively, in-market Buvidal sales grew 17% EPS -6.7 -10.7 -7.6

y-o-y with 3k patients added in the quarter, indicating solid underlying Source: ABG Sundal Collier

development. In the UK, a new budget and 3Y-funding plan have been

CAMX-SE/CAMX SSannounced for this financial year (from 1 April), and CAMX expects to see

a material impact from H2. FY'26 guidance was maintained. The pipeline, Share price (SEK) 12/5/2026 497.00

which we consider the key long-term upside driver, progresses well, with: Target price 750.00

i) US approval for CAM2029 in acromegaly expected in June; ii) the huge

GEP-NET readout still expected in H2'26; iii) initiation of a Phase 2b trial

MCap (SEKm) 29,815

for CAM2056 (once-monthly semaglutide) is expected in H2'26; and vi)

MCap (EURm) 2,745initiation of a Phase 3 trial in PLD is expected following Phase 3 guidance

by the FDA. No. of shares (m) 60.0

Free float (%) 62.0

Estimate revisions

We cut FY'26e-'28e revenue by 3-6%.