Quick Take: Walmart 2Q27 - WMT US comp weak as expected; buy on weakness?

Research evidence excerpt

20 August 2026

Zhihan Ma, CFA

US Retailing Broadlines & Hardlines

Walmart Inc

Jeremy Miles, CFA

Rating

Outperform

Price Target

WMT

142.00 USD

Quick Take: Walmart 2Q27 - WMT US comp weak as expected; buy

on weakness?

Ex tariff refunds, WMT delivered the top end of its Q2 guidance, with +5.0% constant

currency net sales growth (vs. previous guide of 4.0%-5.0%) and a 17.4% adjusted cc EBIT

growth (including a 750bps net benefit from tariff refunds, vs. previous guide of 7-10%).

However, WMT US comp of 2.6% (ex fuel) disappointed, vs. consensus of 3.7%. Notably,

pharmacy represented a 80bps net headwind (with 125bps headwind from Max Fair Pricing

partly offset by a 50bps tailwind from GLP1). Gross margin of 25.4% came in 90bps ahead

of consensus, adj. EBIT margin of 5.0% was 40bps above expectations, and adj. EPS of

$0.81 was a 7c beat as tariff refunds more than offset price investments and high fuel costs.

WMT raised its FY27 outlook but Q3 outlook came in below expectations. WMT

expects cc net sales growth of 4.0% - 5.0% (vs. 3.5% - 4.5% previously, and cons. of 5.4%),

cc adj. EBIT growth of 7.0% - 8.5% (vs. 6.0% - 8.0% previously, and cons. of 8.2%), and adj.

EPS of $2.80 - $2.87 (vs. $2.75 - $2.85 previously, and cons. of 2.90). For Q3, WMT expects

cc net sales growth of 3.0%-3.75% (including 100bps headwind of Big Billion Days’ timing

shift, vs. consensus of 5.0%), cc EBIT growth of 2.0% - 4.0% (vs. consensus of 7.3%), and

adj. EPS of $0.62 - $0.64 (vs. consensus of $0.68).

We maintain conviction in WMT’s multi-year profitability improvement potential,

led by retail media growth and reduced e-commerce fulfillment/delivery costs. Global

advertising revenue grew 38% in Q2, including 43% for Walmart Connect in the US. While

the Q3 guide came in below expectations, this is impacted by the timing mismatch of tariff

refunds received in Q2 and price investments in H2. On a combined basis, Q2 and Q3 point

to ~4-5% cc net sales growth and ~10% cc EBIT growth. Should the stock pull back

meaningfully on the near-term comp deceleration and Q3 guide, we recommend

buying on weakness.

Close Date

19 Aug 2026

WMT Close Price (USD)

114.30

Price Target (USD)

142.00

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