Truck Stop/TLSS: Summertime Slump

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 19, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Freight Transportation | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Truck Stop/TLSS: Summertime

Slump

Nancy Hipp

Research Associate

Madison J Pasterchick

Research Associate

Demand, supply, and rate sentiment all reversed to

underperform. Commentary was incrementally bearish with a

strong focus on a softening demand environment, and 2026 TL

rate expectations continue to hold near an eight-year high at

+7.2%.

Freight Transportation

North America

Industry View

In-Line

Select quotes from our survey…

• "We are starting to settle in at the 'new normal'

as networks stabilize and adjust to all of the

MS TLQURE: We have updated our QURE model for the month of August and vs. our

upheaval thus far this year. The lack of slack

prior model to account for a structural shift in market dynamics that has emerged

capacity means that if/when a major fall storm

since 2023. Our new base case prediction is that truck rates will move to $2.56 in 6

interrupts operations in the southeast, it will take

months (currently $2.24) and move to $2.50 in 12 months. Please find the full

updated MS TLQURE forecast in Section 4, additional detail on our updated model

several weeks to fully recover." (Shipper)

• “For shippers/brokers that feel carriers are taking

here, and here for more information on the QURE model.

advantage of them, let me say that carriers have

Sentiment is incrementally bearish with demand, supply, and rate sentiment all

been crushed the last three years and are trying

reversing to negative. Demand sentiment (both current and forward) reversed to

to get to a reasonable ROI while dealing with the

underperform this update. Current supply underperformed for the first time in the

driver shortage and cost inflation. The current

past four updates while 3 month forward supply sentiment for the fourth time in

environment is the beginning of a structural

the past five updates. We also saw current rate sentiment reverse to underperform

change due to the Montgomery case and

and 3 month forward rate sentiment underperform for the third time in a row.

…