Q2 Wages: Tracking Steady

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 19, 2026 03:01 AM GMT

Australia Macro+ | Asia Pacific

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

Chris Read

Equity Strategist and Australia Economist

Q2 Wages: Tracking Steady

Key Takeaways

Wage growth held at 0.8%Q, 3.2%Y in Q2, in line with MS/consensus

expectations, however, below the RBA's August forecast for 3.3%Y.

Private sector wages increased 0.7%Q and showed clearer signs of slowing, but

Exhibit 1 : Private sector wages slowed in the

were offset by stronger public sector wages (0.9%Q).

quarter, while public sector wages were

4/18 industries saw rising wages growth, down from 8 the prior quarter; the

share of private sector workers receiving a pay rise was the weakest since 2020.

stronger

5.0

wage growth (%Y)

4.5

The three strongest industry contributors to wage growth were government

administration, health care, and construction.

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

Outlook and implications: Overall this was an in line print and the fifth consecutive

quarter of 0.8%Q growth - highlighting the stability of wage growth over the past

year. We expect some increase from Q3, as the 4.75% minimum wage increase starts

to roll through. Alongside declining productivity trends, this is likely to keep labour

costs as a challenge for corporates and for services inflation, meaning persistent

inflation pressures remain likely until demand slows more meaningfully.

Notwithstanding this outlook, this print is still somewhat lower than the RBA was

forecasting at its update last week, and so on the margin will make them less likely

2.0

1.5

1.0

2000

2005

2010

2015

Private Sector

2020

2025

Public Sector

Source: ABS, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 2 : Government administration,

healthcare, and construction were the largest

contributors to wage growth in the quarter

quarterly contribution - industries (ppt)

to tighten rates further – we expect an extended hold from here.

Public administration and safety

Health care and social assistance

Construction

Professional, scientific and technical services

Manufacturing

Information media and telecommunications

Education and training

Mining

Wholesale trade

Arts and recreation services

…