Mexico Equity Flows and Positioning: August 2026: Mexico Equity Strategy | Latin America

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M

Update

August 18, 2026 04:00 PM GMT

Mexico Equity Strategy | Latin America

Morgan Stanley México, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.+

Nikolaj Lippmann

Equity Strategist

Mexico Equity Flows and

Positioning: August 2026

Global investors remain EW in EM, and Mexico's lower weight in

MSCI combined with the lowest OW since the pandemic signal a

light international holding for Mexican stocks, with foreigner

flows now muted. Local pension LTM inflows stand at US$21 bn,

with almost $5bn of inflows in July.

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Julia M Leao Nogueira

Equity Strategist

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Marcos Rios

Equity Strategist

Key Takeaways

Global positioning in EM stands at -0.3 pp, and OW by GEM funds in Mexico has

remained at 0.5p.p., below 0.7p.p. avg., compared to the max of 1.2p.p in May-19

Foreigner flows in local exchanges registered -US$0.4 bn of outflows in June, vs US$0.8bn outflows in May and almost flat (+USD$1.2bn) flows over the LTM

Local pension funds saw seasonal net inflows of US$4.6bn in July, vs -US$1.0bn

net inflows in June, with US$21.2bn of net inflows LTM

Local positioning in domestic equities by AFOREs remains at 6.8%, with room to

add exposure given its crowded position near the cap for foreign equities

We see a diverging story in ETFs, with NAFTRAC experiencing net outflows of US$48mn and EWW experiencing net inflows of US$84mn in July

Key Highlights:

• Foreign equity ownership: Last data available indicates global funds are

broadly EW in EM and OW in Mexico is at its lowest levels since Jan-21. In

July 2026, foreigners' net outflows stood at -US$0.4bn (vs -US$0.8bn in

June) and +US$1.2bn net outflows LTM. As of July 2026, foreigners'

ownership stood at US$195bn, or ~30% of the estimated Mexican equity

market (below the 10-year average of 32%).

• Local equity ownership:

° AFOREs: In July 2026, funds saw net inflows of US$4.6bn, accumulating

US$21.2bn of net inflows LTM (~4.1% of AUM). We estimate this

translated into ~US$4.4bn of equity net inflows for the LTM, of which

34% (~US$1,468m, ~0.23% of the total Mexican equity market cap) were

allocated to local equities.…