Smartphone Beat in 2Q26, Positive Surprise of Smartphone GPM Likely in 2H26; OW

Research evidence excerpt

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

August 18, 2026 04:02 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Xiaomi Corp | Asia Pacific

Andy Meng, CFA

Equity Analyst

Smartphone Beat in 2Q26,

Positive Surprise of Smartphone

GPM Likely in 2H26; OW

Betty Chen

Research Associate

Gary Yu

Equity Analyst

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Strengthens our thesis

In-line

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK, 1810 HK)

Top Pick

Greater China Technology Hardware | China

Positive QoQ revenue growth in AIoT and EV offset the slight

decline in smartphone and internet, introducing a higher revenue

base to offset GPM dip, from 22.0% in 1Q26 to 19.8% in 2Q26.

We expect smartphone GPM to remain resilient in 2H26, which

will be a positive surprise and re-rating catalyst.

Key Takeaways

Smartphone delivered upbeat revenue and gross margin in 2Q26 despite

significant chipflation.

EV segment revenue rose 25% QoQ, to Rmb24.9bn, while GPM dipped from

20.1% in 1Q26 to 19.2% in 2Q26.

AIoT revenue rose 27% QoQ, to Rmb31.3bn, while GPM declined from 25.2% in

1Q26 to 20.1% in 2Q26.

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 18, 2026)

52-Week Range

Sh out, dil, curr (mn)

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Avg daily trading value (mn)

Overweight

In-Line

HK$32.00

22

HK$26.18

HK$59.90-21.30

26,695

US$89,064

US$824

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS (Rmb)**

Revenue, net (Rmb bn)

EBITDA (Rmb bn)

ModelWare net inc

(Rmb bn)

P/E

1.47

457.3

38.2

41.6

0.89

438.9

21.6

16.2

1.27

533.8

36.6

25.2

1.85

646.2

56.4

39.6

22.6

36.6

23.6

15.0

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Xiaomi reported 2Q26 adjusted net profit of Rmb6.2bn, down 43% YoY but up

2% QoQ. By segment:

1. Smartphones: Revenue declined 7% YoY, to Rmb42.12bn,13% above our

forecast.

2. EV: Revenue increased 17% YoY, to Rmb24.90bn, 3% below our estimate.

3.…