LiDAR pays the bill, SGI buys the future

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 18, 2026 03:30 PM GMT

Hesai Group | Asia Pacific

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Tim Hsiao

Equity Analyst

LiDAR pays the bill, SGI buys

the future

Peggy Wang

Research Associate

Shelley Wang, CFA

Equity Analyst

Key Takeaways

We believe Hesai is effectively broadening its portfolio toward physical AI;

Joey Xu, CFA

Equity Analyst

Core LiDAR franchise functions as a cash cow...

...funding its strategic growth initiatives (SGI) of spatial intelligence and embodied

AI, underwriting the next leg of growth and valuation re-rating.

Existing LiDAR business - The funding engine: Management reiterated its 3-3.5mn

Hesai Group (HSAI.O, HSAI US)

unit total shipment target for 2026 and guided 800-850k units for 3Q26. Within

China Autos & Shared Mobility | China

ADAS, it looks for a back-loaded 2H26, underpinned by auto sales seasonality and,

New SGI business - The growth option: SGI contributed Rmb45mn revenue in

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 17, 2026)

52-Week Range

Sh out, dil, curr (mn)

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

EV, curr (mn)

Avg daily trading value (mn)

2Q26 against a Rmb64mn operating loss, a deficit we read as front-loaded

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

investment rather than structural drag. We see upside to management's guidance of

EPS (Rmb)**

Revenue, net (Rmb mn)

EBITDA (Rmb mn)

ModelWare net inc

(Rmb mn)

P/E

P/BV

RNOA (%)

ROE (%)

EV/EBITDA

Div yld (%)

FCF yld ratio (%)**

Leverage (EOP) (%)

3.13

3,028

293

436

5.73

4,278

771

797

9.90

6,076

1,383

1,377

13.59

7,977

1,968

1,891

52.6

2.6

10.1

11.1

54.9

0.0

(24.6)

(44.0)

22.4

1.8

22.6

8.9

12.4

0.0

8.0

(55.0)

13.0

1.6

63.0

14.1

5.4

0.0

11.6

(66.8)

9.4

1.4

175.2

17.0

2.9

0.0

10.3

(71.2)

more structurally, rising LiDAR attach rates in China EVs - from ~20% in 2025 to an

expected 30-40% in 2026, a penetration curve that increasingly decouples segment

volume from any single OEM. In robotics, management targets >500k units for

2026, the bulk from Chinese robotic lawnmowers shipping into Europe.

Rmb200-300mn for 2026 and US$100mn for 2027 as: 1) robotic actuator capacity

…