2Q25 Metro Jobs Report: Metro Level Employment Report: Trends during 2Q25

Research evidence excerpt

Real Estate | REITs

August 18, 2026

Steve Sakwa

James Kammert

Michael Griffin, CFA

Manus Ebbecke, CFA

Sanket Agrawal

2Q25 Metro Jobs Report

Metro Level Employment Report: Trends during 2Q25

This report provides an overview of Q2 employment trends in

select metro areas and includes an analysis of historical &

projected job growth within these markets. We also take a

detailed look at each metro’s employment with a focus on (i) a

breakdown of job growth by subsector and (ii) historical &

Moody’s projected annual job growth from 2000 to 2026.

Where was job growth the strongest & weakest during Q2?

New Haven (+1.1%) had the strongest job growth followed by

Raleigh (+0.9%), and Seattle (+0.5%).

The weakest markets were San Francisco (-0.3%), Vegas

(-0.2%), DC (-0.2%) and Phoenix (-0.2%).

Where has TTM job growth been the strongest & weakest?

Over the past 12 months (3Q24-2Q25), Raleigh (+2.4%),

Charlotte (+2.2%) & Orlando (+1.9%) had the strongest job

growth. Vegas (-0.2%), San Jose (-0.3%) and SF (-0.6 %) were

the weakest markets.

What mkts are forecasted to have the highest growth in ‘25?

The top markets that are projected to lead in 2025 are Orlando

(+2.6%) followed by Raleigh (+1.8%) and Charlotte (+1.8%). On

the flip side, markets with the weakest forecasted job growth are

DC (-3.1%), Denver (-0.1%) and Vegas (+0.1%).

What’s interesting to note is that job growth for ’25 is forecasted

to be 0.7% and this compares to 1.2% growth in ’24 and job

growth is expected to slow further to just 0.5% in ‘26.

Employment trends by industry

We’ve taken a detailed look at each metro’s subsector

employment trends on both a quarterly and TTM basis.

Education & Healthcare and Leisure sectors were the major

contributor to job growth on both a quarterly and TTM basis on

a national level.

Sunbelt vs. Coastal/Gateway Job Growth

Turn to page 9 to see the prior trends and future predictions in

these two regions of the country. It’s interesting to note that the

gap in job growth between the Sunbelt and Coastal markets

narrowed considerably in ’24 to just 40bp (in favor of Sunbelt)

but is predicated to widen out to 1.0% in FY25 and remain at just

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