InterContinental Hotels Group | Europe: Off the Call

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M

Update

August 11, 2026 09:52 AM GMT

InterContinental Hotels Group | Europe

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Jamie Rollo

Equity Analyst

Off the Call

InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG.L, IHG LN)

IHG's H1 call was positive on the demand backdrop, the trajectory of net unit

Leisure and Hotels | United Kingdom

growth and owner economics, while the principal negative remains the

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 10, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

conversion of RevPAR and NUG into fee revenue. The shares are -2% post print,

and now -12% from their recent peak, which we think is a little unfair given the

direction of consensus forecasts is upwards. Overall, the call does not change our

estimates or view (see our 1st Take). Key points:

1. Strong demand drivers: The demand discussion was constructive, particularly in

Equal-weight

Attractive

US$162.00

US$155.55

US$175.70-115.64

US$23,581

US$3,728

US$26,919

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

the US, where RevPAR accelerated from +3.4% in Q1 to +5.2% in Q2, with the World

Cup contributing ~1ppt to Q2 (but only c.40bps to FY26 Americas RevPAR, so

management stressed it was not the fundamental driver). Performance was broadbased rather than purely event-driven: Americas rooms revenue was +10% for

Groups, +4% for Leisure and +3% for Business, while every brand delivered RevPAR

growth. EMEAA excluding the Middle East grew c. +4% in Q2, offsetting the -19%

Middle East decline. At the group level the company saw decent occupancy growth,

with the +1.0ppt occupancy increase contributing c.1.6pts of H1’s +4.1% RevPAR, and

this is the leading indicator of demand, with ADR usually following. This supports

our view that FY26 consensus RevPAR of +2.8% looks a little light relative to our

+3.2%, although the Middle East and recent China data remain the principal risks.

Management also highlighted the structural support from employment, wealth

creation, infrastructure investment, growing corporate profits, and growing demand

…