Boeing: On the ground in Renton and Seattle - Where do 737MAX and free cash flow outlooks stand?

Research evidence excerpt

10 August 2026

Douglas S. Harned, Ph.D.

Global Aerospace & Defense

Boeing Co

Adrien Rabier

Rating

Outperform

Nestor Wester

Price Target

BA

Specialist Sales

298.00 USD

Steve Song

Boeing: On the ground in Renton and Seattle - Where do 737MAX

and free cash flow outlooks stand?

This note describes takeaways from a visit to Puget Sound last week, which included touring

manufacturing facilities for the 737MAX and discussions with senior management. The

737MAX appears on a track that is consistent with company statements at Q2 earnings and

at our Strategic Decisions Conference. This means that the line is operating at 47/month,

but with some blanks leading to a rollout rate that is slightly lower. Rollout is running with

2-3 737-10s per month, which leads to a gap in rollouts versus deliveries, as 737-10s will

not be delivered until 2027. We expect the line to move to 52/month in H1 2027, requiring

a 5/month rate on the new North Line in Everett. BCA is already staffed for the 52/month.

The Everett line will ultimately go to 16/month, which will enable rates of 57/month and 63/

month. CEO Ortberg has said supply chain becomes a bigger issue at 57/month.

“WWE”, or Wings, Wichita, and Engines are key areas of focus. The wing line is being

automated to enable 63/month in Renton (project completion target October 2027).

Fuselage defect rates from Wichita are much lower now and inventories are high. But, it is

critical that Wichita production ramps effectively to 52/month and above. $1bn is being

invested there. LEAP-1B deliveries are fine now, still with some excess inventory, but, always

a watch item (e.g., GEnx shortfalls earlier this year).

We look for more clarity on FCF. Trends look good for 787 and 737 rates and margins. BDS

cash performance should improve. But, balance sheet items can add high volatility. Still,

we believe it will be important to provide more visibility into the cash flow components. We

remain above $10bn in FCF for 2028. Recent headlines about fuselage crack are a nonissue. We still watch SPEEA negotiation progress as a short-term question.

Close Date

7 Aug 2026

BA Close Price (USD)

234.42

Price Target (USD)

298.00

Upside/(Downside)

27%

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