F12/26 1Q Results: Guidance Cut Amid Multiple Negatives

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 7, 2026 02:37 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Nichirei (2871) | Japan

Tomonobu Tsunoyama

Equity Analyst

F12/26 1Q Results: Guidance Cut

Amid Multiple Negatives

Seki Li

Research Associate

Haruka Miyake

Equity Analyst

Jully Ussui

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Research Associate

Unchanged

Meaningful shortfall

Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

1Q OP came in at ¥8.2bn (our forecast: ¥12.0bn, consensus: ¥11.7bn).

Nichirei (2871.T, 2871 JP)

Processed food missed our forecast, with weak Thai subsidiary earnings and

Food | Japan

falling domestic household frozen food volumes among the main causes.

Nichirei lowered full-year OP target to ¥30.0bn (from ¥33.8bn; our forecast:

¥35.0bn, consensus: ¥36.6bn).

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 7, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Avg daily trading value (bn)

Overweight

In-Line

¥2,300

¥2,227

¥558.0

¥3.0

Share price implications: Given the sharp downward revision to a level well below

consensus and the recent rise in the share price, we think a near-term correction is

unavoidable. That said, the revised plan appears to assume that 1Q marked the

earnings trough for the time being, and in the results briefing on Aug 7 President

Kazunori Shimamoto indicated that the firm aims to maintain its OP of ¥45.2bn for

the next business year.

Unexpected negative factors compounded: The roughly ¥3.8bn downward revision

to OP reflects factors including: 1) ¥1.1bn of deterioration in earnings at overseas

processed foods subsidiaries with falling chicken by-product prices among the

causes; 2) an approx. ¥0.8bn hit from system disruption; and 3) risk (~¥1.5bn) of

volumes falling following price hikes implemented in Aug to absorb effects of the

Middle East conflict.

F12/27 target maintained: In the briefing President Shimamoto indicated that,

although the current earnings environment remains challenging, the company aims

…