PayPal 2Q26: Model update

Research evidence excerpt

PayPal 2Q26: Model update

29 July 2026

Estimate Change

Harshita Rawat, CFA

+1 917 344 8485

Payments, Processors & IT Services harshita.rawat@bernsteinsg.com

PayPal Holdings Inc Viola Chen

+1 917 344 8614

Rating viola.chen@bernsteinsg.com

Market-Perform Simran Ratani

Price Target +1 917 344 8329

simran.ratani@bernsteinsg.com

PYPL 55.00 USD

In this note, we refresh our estimates for PayPal post the 2Q26 print.

Close Date 28 Jul 2026

See our quick take: PayPal 2q26: Deal or no deal? Can a new PayPal work? PYPL Close Price (USD) 58.32

Price Target (USD) 55.00

The only question that mattered going into PayPal’s second quarter earnings was around Upside/(Downside) (6)%

management’s thoughts on the reported bid by Stripe/Advent at $60.5 per share (see link). 52-Week Range 79.22/38.46

Somewhat unsurprisingly, management spent much of the call focused on the transformation SPX 7,428.78

underway at PayPal, better-than-expected core drivers, with a brief comment on ‘carefully FYE Dec

considering opportunities to create shareholder value’. Div Yield 0.9%

Market Cap (USD) (M) 50,682

Can the deal still happen? And if so, at what price? As we highlighted in our recent EV (USD) (M) 51,142

note (link and link), we believe, from the board’s perspective, $60.5 share price may be Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

too low. A price of at least ~$70/share is needed, in our view, to get the board to at least Absolute (%) 1.5 33.5 11.6 (17.1)

come to the table. The complication is that it is unclear how Stripe + Advent may fund a SPX (%) 8.5 (0.2) 6.6 16.6

deal which values PayPal comfortably above $70/share. To complicate matters further, Relative (%) (7.0) 33.7 5.0 (33.7)

WSJ recently reported (see link) that Stripe is considering buying OpenRouter for ~$10B.