O‘Reilly Automotive, Inc.: There‘s Plenty of Fuel Left in this Tank

Research evidence excerpt

O‘Reilly Automotive, Inc.: There‘s Plenty of Fuel Left in this Tank

d

From To % ch Cons.

market share gains and solid execution. We remain constructive on the stock.

Q1 0.72 0.72 0 0.72

Importantly, management also put recent acquisition speculation to rest. ORLY Q2 0.86 0.86 0 0.86

reiterated that its M&A strategy remains focused on opportunities where it can Q3E 0.93 0.94 1 0.91

successfully implement its culture and operating model. As a result, management Q4E 0.79 0.79 0 0.77

12/26E 3.31 3.32 0 3.26

does not anticipate pursuing large, transformative acquisitions in the foreseeable

12/27E 3.80 3.75 -1 3.63

future. This should ease the concerns that a disruptive transaction is on the

12/28E 4.35 4.20 -3 4.03

horizon.

Michael Lasser

The company’s growth remains broad-based, resilient, and ahead of the Analyst

company’s initial expectations. Both ORLY’s DIY (LSD comp) and DIFM (10% michael.lasser@ubs.com

comp) are outperforming internal forecasts by a similar degree. The performance +1-212-713 2440

was also relatively consistent throughout the quarter. While April represented the

Joshua Bluestine

strongest month, we estimate the spread versus May and June was less than 200 Analyst

bps. The company’s trends have accelerated quarter-to-date as ORLY benefits from joshua.bluestine@ubs.com

improving demand in hot-weather categories. We estimate July comp trends are +1-212-713 1297

currently running in the 8-9% range.

Mark Carden

Analyst

Despite increasing its outlook, we continue to view ORLY’s comp guidance as

mark.carden@ubs.com

conservative. With DIFM transaction growth running at approximately 5% and inflation +1-212-713 3218

expected at 1-2%, we estimate a roughly 3% comp floor for 2H even assuming no

contribution from DIY.