F4Q Follow-Up: Looking for a Fresh(er) Step in FY27

Research evidence excerpt

F4Q Follow-Up: Looking for a Fresh(er) Step in FY27

re losses. We also see some risk that a EPS ($)§ 7.05 5.54 5.97 6.39

pending new CEO could look to reinvest more behind the business and implement Div yld (%) 4.1 5.2 5.2 5.4

broader changes, keeping EPS visibility low. Post Q4 EPS, our FY27 EPS is Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

essentially unchanged. ** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Q4 Details: CLX F4Q EPS of $1.66 slightly missed consensus of $1.69 despite 2.6%

sales upside and ~3% GP upside, with 0.5% OSG ex ERP timing in line and better-

than-expected GOJO performance contributing to total sales upside, along with

adjusted GMs ~20 bps above consensus. Higher SG&A drove operating profit 1.0%

below consensus, which, along with higher interest expense, more than offset a

slightly favorable tax rate. Net, there were puts and takes by line item, but we

consider the quarter relatively in line. FY27 adjusted EPS guidance implies only 3-8%

EPS growth despite cycling the $0.90 ERP headwind worth ~16% to yoy EPS and

GOJO accretion, reflecting higher incentive compensation, cost pressure post the

Iran conflict, and weak underlying OSG. OSG guidance is effectively only flat to

slightly positive excluding the ERP cycling.

Varied Share Performance by Segment: Underlying OSG in Q4 ex ERP timing was

slightly positive at 0.5% and CLX’s June share exit rate was nearly flat, but a

recovery remains uneven in our minds. By segment, Home Care has now gained

share for eight consecutive quarters, with solid performance from Clorox PURE and

Scentiva, while Professional/Purell and International also remained solid.