Fine Now, Cloudy Later

Research evidence excerpt

Fine Now, Cloudy Later

Idea

August 3, 2026 08:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Banks | Asia Pacific Richard E Wiles

Equity Analyst

Fine Now, Cloudy Later Richard.Wiles@morganstanley.comSally Hong, CFA +61 2 9770-1537

Sally.Hong@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1698

Conditions have shifted and we expect consensus downgrades

as the year unfolds. However, operating trends were sound in

the June quarter, good results are now widely expected, and

there should be no major surprises in reporting season. We

highlight key areas of focus and company-specific issues. Australia Banks

Asia Pacific

Industry View Cautious

Key Takeaways

Good results with no surprises are widely expected. This helped the stocks rise Exhibit 1 : Major Banks: Reporting Dates

~7.5% in July (ASX 200 +2.3%) as investors position for reporting season. Reporting Date Bank Period

Mon, 10 Aug 2026 WBC 3Q26 Trading Update

Mortgage growth has tracked in line with expectations, business loan growth has Wed, 12 Aug 2026 CBA FY26 Results

been strong, and we forecast margins to rise in the June quarter. Thu, 13 Aug 2026 ANZ 3Q26 Trading Update

Mon, 17 Aug 2026 NAB 3Q26 Trading Update

We think expenses are tracking in line with expectations and there will be no

change to guidance. Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Credit quality should remain sound. We forecast an average underlying loss rate

of ~9bp in the June quarter. Capital trends will be better than March's.

Outlook commentary on mortgage growth, competition, and credit quality

should be measured, but there won't be earnings, margin, or loan loss guidance.

Good major bank results widely expected: We believe good results are widely

expected by investors: mortgage growth has only just started to slow; business loan