First Read Kisssei Pharmaceutical Tavneos earnings reset overwhelms revenue beat

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Kisssei Pharmaceutical Tavneos earnings reset overwhelms revenue beat

/27E 273.3 257.0

guides for FY3/27 Tavneos sales of ¥5.1bn (-55.7% from ¥11.5bn in FY3/26). The 03/28E 332.6 266.4

operating-profit forecast is being partially supported by the deferral of certain in- 03/29E 363.4 298.1

licensed development milestone payments into FY3/28, while net income continues to

Mark Yokoyama

benefit from ¥14bn of expected securities gains. Management has also stated that

Analyst

guidance may be revised depending on subsequent Tavneos developments. mark.yokoyama@ubs.com

+81-3-5208 6265

Q: How would we expect investors to react?

Atsushi Seki

A: We expect a negative reaction as these earnings show the Tavneos regulatory risk Analyst

represents a materially larger and potentially unfinished earnings reset. Investors will atsushi.seki@ubs.com

likely focus on the 54.5% reduction in full-year operating profit guidance and its implied +65 6495 6860

fall in Tavneos sales to ¥1bn per quarter. Strong ex-Tavneos growth confirms that the rest

of the commercial portfolio remains intact, but it is insufficient to compensate for the

loss of a high-margin product and the resulting pressure on pharmaceutical profitability.

The magnitude of the share-price volatility may be moderated by prior awareness of the

Tavneos issue, but the absence of regulatory resolution and management's explicit

warning that guidance could change again leave downside risk. We thereby maintain

our Neutral rating and price target of ¥4,900.

Highlights (¥m) 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27E 03/28E 03/29E 03/30E 03/31E

Revenues 75,578.0 88,329.0 97,406.0 98,398.2 107,820.5 112,141.7 116,958.4 122,229.1

EBIT (UBS) 4,016.0 5,773.0 (2,926.0) 4,400.9 7,536.8 9,491.4 11,670.0 14,054.1