First Read SBI Holdings: Positive: Q1 results flash: Net profit significantly exceeded our forecast

Research evidence excerpt

First Read SBI Holdings: Positive: Q1 results flash: Net profit significantly exceeded our forecast

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 45.1%

Forecast dividend yield 3.8%

Forecast stock return 48.9%

Market return assumption 7.8%

Forecast excess return 41.1%

Company Description

SBI Holdings primarily engages in venture capital investments focused on domestic and

international internet-related companies. It also handles securities operations, investment

banking, and financial services. Its strength lies in the development of innovative financial

services. Through collaboration with group companies, it pursues diversified business

expansion, demonstrating a strong presence in the IT and financial integration sector.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Risks to our view are as follows.

(1) Impairment losses in the investment business, (2) equity financing resulting in significant

dilution.

Other fundamental risk factors are as follows.

Market: (1) A downturn in equity and bond markets and (2) fluctuations in forex rates could

lead to declines in commissions and trading revenue and thereby directly squeeze the results

of both the retail and wholesale divisions.

Regulatory: (1) Strengthened capital adequacy regulations and (2) stepped-up fiduciary duty

requirements (customer-centric business operations) could result in a decline in capital

efficiency and increased burdens from business process changes and thereby constrain

strategic flexibility.

Company-specific: (1) Interest rate risks associated with hybrid strategies and (2) inadequate

internal management systems could lead to a deterioration in loan-deposit income and a loss

of customer trust and thereby undermine the synergies from group collaboration.

Our valuation is based upon a residual income model (RIM).