EMEA Economic Comment: Poland: Fuel price rebound pushes inflation back up to 3%

Research evidence excerpt

EMEA Economic Comment: Poland: Fuel price rebound pushes inflation back up to 3%

Global Research

31 July 2026ab

EMEA Economic Comment Economics

EMEA EmergingPoland: Fuel price rebound pushes inflation back

up to 3% Anna Zadornova

Economist

anna.zadornova@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 4212

Inflation rises back above target in July on fuel prices

Preliminary data showed headline inflation rose to 3.0% y/y in July (0.8% m/m), from

2.5% y/y in June, in line with Bloomberg consensus. The July print marks a swift

turnaround in headline inflation after it fell to 2.5% target in June, although it remains

within the NBP's ±1pp tolerance band. The acceleration was driven primarily by

transport fuel prices, which rose by 13.9% m/m and 15.8% y/y, reflecting the

restoration of the full 23% VAT rate on fuels after the expiry of the temporary tax

reduction on 1 July, as well as a rebound in global oil prices. Energy inflation declined to

4.0% y/y in July from 4.8% y/y in June on base effects, as the regulator left the gas tariffs

unchanged in July. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices declined by 0.4% y/y, 08.

%m/m, deepening the -0.2%y/y fall in June. This partly offset the impact from higher

fuel costs: we estimate that lower food and household energy inflation shaved off 5bps

and 10bps off the headline CPI print in July, while higher fuel prices added 56bps. Based

on the flash data, we estimate that core inflation increased slightly to 3.1% y/y, from

3.0% y/y in June.

Near-tem inflation outlook remains largely dependent on oil

The rise in inflation back above target should temper the dovish mood at the NBP,

although we note that there is no regular rate-setting meeting scheduled for August.

Between now and September there will be more data on inflation and activity, which can