APAC Economic Comment: ASEAN Weekly: Singapore monetary and fiscal policy, Thailand‘s June economic data, Philippines‘ SONA

Research evidence excerpt

APAC Economic Comment: ASEAN Weekly: Singapore monetary and fiscal policy, Thailand‘s June economic data, Philippines‘ SONA

Global Research

31 July 2026ab

APAC Economic Comment Economics

AsiaASEAN Weekly: Singapore monetary and fiscal

policy, Thailand's June economic data, Claire Long

Economist

claire.long@ubs.comPhilippines' SONA

+65 6495 7426

Grace Lim

Singapore: Monetary and fiscal policy actions this week grace-k.lim@ubs.com

MAS delivered another tightening move this week, albeit a measured 25bp +65-6495 5965

(UBSe) increase in the slope. This underscores its commitment to anchoring inflation

expectations while preserving flexibility should inflation risks increase. The implication

for markets is broadly unchanged: the S$NEER should remain supported near the top of

the policy band, while domestic rates will continue to be driven primarily by the Fed

rather than MAS. A 25bp Fed hike would likely pass through one-for-one to SORA. The

growth story also continues to improve. Stronger-than-expected 2Q GDP data prompted

us to raise our 2026 growth forecast to 5.0% from 4.1%. (See note) Fiscal policy

remains supportive at the margin. While the newly announced CDC vouchers for

January 2027 (S$300 per household, equivalent to roughly 0.05% of GDP) are unlikely

to materially alter the macro outlook, they suggest a readiness to respond to growth

risks. Taken together, prudent monetary tightening and targeted fiscal support point to

a policy mix that remains supportive of macroeconomic stability and growth. Also this

week, MAS released its annual report and asset management survey for 2025. The

survey highlighted continued momentum in Singapore's asset management industry,

with AUM rising 10% to S$6.7tn and net inflows surging 29% y/y. More importantly,