First Read Bangkok Bank: Soft near-term macro backdrop, FDI-driven M-T growth remains intact

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Bangkok Bank: Soft near-term macro backdrop, FDI-driven M-T growth remains intact

ement HoH supporting earnings resilience.

12/27E 22.55 22.78

12/28E 23.27 24.08

Maintain prudent LLR buffer policy

BBL acknowledged deterioration in relapsed manufacturing and commercial accounts. Peach Patharavanakul

AnalystManagement maintained its NPL target at around 3%, with possible fluctuations within

peach.patharavanakul@ubs.com

3.0-3.5% before improvement in 4Q26. Stage 3 loans rose, but Stage 2 balances

+662-613 5717

declined, which management views as a positive leading indicator. Though provisions

are unlikely to fall below this level near term amid disciplined reserve building. Credit

costs should decline HoH in 2H26 and be lower than 2025, but remain above 1%. LLR

coverage will depend on asset quality trends. Management retains a conservative write-

off policy and remains broadly comfortable with asset quality.

Remain constructive on Indonesia medium term outlook

Despite policy concerns, BBL said fundamentals remain intact, supported by GDP

growth near 5% and industry loan growth of 9%. Three policy rate hikes pressured

margins, but rupiah volatility is stabilizing and management expects improvement.

Permata’s loan growth was 4.8%, below its 8% target, led by corporate and SME

lending, while consumer lending was scaled back amid competition. Asset quality

remained sound. NIM was 3.5%, pressured by funding costs. Net profit rose 4.5% on

lower credit costs and fee income. We maintain Neutral on sub-par 2026E profitability

but see FDIs as medium-term catalysts.

Highlights (Btm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 167,300 175,606 178,324 164,554 166,974 167,012 171,908 175,393