Vale Indonesia Tbk: Strong project ramp-ups drove consensus earnings beat

Research evidence excerpt

Vale Indonesia Tbk: Strong project ramp-ups drove consensus earnings beat

Global Research

30 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesVale Indonesia Tbk

Strong project ramp-ups drove consensus Indonesia

earnings beat Mining

12-month rating Buy

12m price target Rp8,400

Q226 earnings: Beat consensus but in line with UBSe

Vale Indonesia (INCO) posted better Q226 earnings than consensus estimated, with US

$61m NPAT up 39% QoQ (up 16x YoY) driving YTD NPAT to US$104m (up 3x YoY). Price (29 Jul 2026) Rp4,640

Lower total costs led by project ramp-ups were the key to the earnings beat, in our view. RIC: INCO.JK BBG: INCO IJ

Top-line ramp-ups from nickel matte and nickel ore production improved operating

Trading data and key metrics

leverage, resulting in Q226 unit cost declining sequentially. Besides low-cost energy

inventory and cost discipline, the production ramp-ups have been instrumental in 52-wk range Rp7,900-3,450

offsetting a rising energy cost backdrop. The strong Q226 earnings were in line with our Market cap. Rp46,105b/US$2.55b

Q226 preview, and we reiterate INCO as our top pick in Indonesian metals. Shares o/s 9,936m (ORD)

Free float 20%

What drove Q226 cash cost lower despite an energy cost uplift? Avg. daily volume ('000) 22,208

1) Nickel matte production grew a strong 19% QoQ in Q226, after the furnace restart, Avg. daily value (m) Rp111,562.8

resulting in 4% QoQ lower cash cost to US$10.0k/tNi. 2) A combination of low-cost Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$2.99b

sulphur inventory and pyrite ore consumption in producing nickel matte also drove P/BV (12/26E) 0.9x

lower cash cost, in our view. 3) The strong ramp-up in nickel ore sales (implying Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.4x

production growth) of 139% QoQ (up 36x YoY) to 2.3m wmt in Q226 improved unit

EPS (UBS, diluted) (US$)