First Read MGM China Q226 in-line; demand run-rate back to Q1 level in late July

Research evidence excerpt

First Read MGM China Q226 in-line; demand run-rate back to Q1 level in late July

Global Research

30 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesMGM China

Q226 in-line; demand run-rate back to Q1 level Hong Kong

in late July Casinos

12-month rating Buy

12m price target HK$15.20

Q226 luck-adjusted EBITDA at US$301m, in-line with estimates

MGM Resorts reported Macau adjusted property EBITDA of US$298m for Q226, down

c7% YoY and c5% QoQ. Adjusted for VIP hold, the EBITDA would be cUS$301m, Price (29 Jul 2026) HK$11.02

broadly in-line with consensus estimates of US$294m. Mass GGR was down c3% QoQ, RIC: 2282.HK BBG: 2282 HK

in-line with industry decline. VIP volume was down c7% QoQ, at VIP hold of c2.8%,

Trading data and key metrics

bringing VIP GGR up c3% QoQ. Daily opex was up c2% QoQ to US$3.3m/day, due to

salary hike in April, with reinvestment rate down 40bps QoQ to 22.6%. Overall, 52-wk range HK$17.32-9.84

corporate EBITDA margin was down c110bps QoQ to c25.7% on negative operating Market cap. HK$41.9b/US$5.34b

leverage. Shares o/s 3,801m (ORD)

Free float 22%

Industry gaming revenue recovered to Q1 level in last week of July Avg. daily volume ('000) 6,510

Management sees strong pent up demand as the world cup concludes, with weekly Avg. daily value (m) HK$69.9

performance improving sequentially in July. Both MGM's property visitation and gaming Common s/h equity (12/26E) HK$5.45b

revenue exceeded Q1 level for the last week of July, while industry GGR has broadly P/BV (12/26E) 7.7x

recovered to Q1 level. Management is confident on a strong summer season, Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 1.5x

highlighting the recent demand recovery and upcoming event pipeline. Management

EPS (UBS, diluted) (HK$)

will continue to focus on yield optimisation, and have commenced design work on the

UBS Cons.