US Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology: MDGL F4 event rate commentary encouraging, NBIX Ingrezza more upside from here: 2Q Wrap

Research evidence excerpt

US Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology: MDGL F4 event rate commentary encouraging, NBIX Ingrezza more upside from here: 2Q Wrap

Global Research

31 July 2026ab

US Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Equities

AmericasMDGL F4 event rate commentary encouraging,

NBIX Ingrezza more upside from here: 2Q Wrap Pharmaceuticals

Ashwani Verma

Analyst

ash.verma@ubs.com

MDGL (Buy): Mgmt confident in F4 placebo rate & gradual enrollment curve +1-212-713 4059

We see the sell-off on 2Q print as a buying opportunity ahead of the F4 outcomes study. So Youn Shim

As we previewed (link), investors are focused on F4 timing and confidence in study Analyst

success. We see the risk/ reward heavily skewed to the upside given the stock is barely so-youn.shim@ubs.com

pricing in anything for the F4 MASH indication which has data read-out in 2027. In our +1-212-713 4331

discussion, mgmt indicated they would provide ample notice as a heads-up for the study Paritosh Gangaramani

read-out timeline. We update our model with 2Q actuals and maintain our PT of $669/ Associate Analyst

sh. We revise estimates for revenues, COGS, R&D and SG&A spend based on 2Q actuals paritosh.gangaramani@ubs.com

and updated guidance. Our 2027/2028 GAAP EPS estimates are now $11.58/$31.63 vs. +1-212-713 8073

prior $18.09/$40.92. Di Zhao

1. Mgmt confident in PBO >5% event rate: Recall that at the Liver Forum March Analyst

di.zhao@ubs.com

2026, Madrigal presented the analysis (slide 12) that indicated a 4.8-5.0%

+1-212-713 5953

annualized event rate/ year for natural history patients. However, for the

MAESTRO-NASH-OUTCOMES study, mgmt is confident that the event rate in the Natalie McArthur

Associate Analyst pbo arm will be ≥5%, given the F4 trial was enriched for a more sick CSPH patient

natalie.mcarthur@ubs.com

population.