First Read National Medical Care Company: 2Q26: Double-Digit Growth, Broad-Based Beat

Research evidence excerpt

First Read National Medical Care Company: 2Q26: Double-Digit Growth, Broad-Based Beat

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 14.2%

Forecast dividend yield 2.6%

Forecast stock return 16.9%

Market return assumption 10.0%

Forecast excess return 6.9%

Company Description

Care Medical is a Saudi-listed healthcare provider operating hospitals and specialised facilities

across the Kingdom. It serves inpatients and outpatients through a diversified payor mix led

by GOSI (General Organization for Social Insurance), government entities and private

insurers.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value National Medical Care using DCF methodology. Our key risks include:

1. Revenue recognition and estimation risk: Healthcare revenue involves significant

estimation due to insurance rejections and variable consideration, which depend on

management judgment. Any misestimation in claims disallowances or receivable

recoverability could lead to revenue reversals, earnings volatility, and heightened audit

scrutiny.

2. Payor concentration risk: The business remains heavily dependent on institutional payors

such as GOSI and government entities, which constitute a significant share of revenues. This

creates exposure to reimbursement delays, pricing constraints, and cyclical referral patterns,

limiting the company’s ability to independently manage revenue stability and margins.

3. Margin compression risk: The company is facing significant pressure on profitability, with

EBITDA declining despite stable revenues. This reflects structural cost inflation, particularly in

salaries and operating expenses which are growing faster than revenue and could erode

margins if cost discipline and revenue yield do not improve.

4.