Procter & Gamble: A Tough Quarter, But A Cleaner Setup Ahead; Stay Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Procter & Gamble: A Tough Quarter, But A Cleaner Setup Ahead; Stay Buy

tment on the

Q1E 1.90 1.87 -2 1.93

quarter itself but suspect this may be a dynamic other HPC companies may have to

Q2E 1.90 1.81 -5 1.89

contend with as we move through the balance of earnings season. In addition, we

Q3E 1.62 1.66 3 1.64

recognize that bears generally believe shares remain expensive for a company delivering Q4E 1.57 1.62 3 1.53

very little organic revenue growth, and should it become apparent that LT top line 06/27E 6.98 6.96 -0 7.04

growth is more or less in the flat to +2% range for P&G this would cause us to revisit our 06/28E 7.44 7.39 -1 7.44

thesis. However, consumption is currently running ahead of this range despite a more 06/29E 7.84 7.80 -0 7.81

challenging backdrop and we think it is only a matter of time before this stronger

consumption begins to show in the results. Peter Grom

Analyst

peter.grom@ubs.com

Initial FY27 Guidance Brackets Street EPS Estimates +1-212-713 3482

P&G outlined initial FY27 guidance this morning; the company expects core EPS growth

Arian Chakravarty

of +1% to +3% YoY, implying EPS in the range of $6.89-$7.11 vs. Street of $7.00. This Associate Analyst

expectation is underpinned by organic sales growth in the range of 1-3% (vs. Street of arian.chakravarty@ubs.com

+2.5%) with net sales growth to be approximately +1-3% (vs. Visible Alpha of +2.3%) +1-212-713 1474

with the company expecting to see a ~flat/no benefit from FX. Beyond the top line, the

Chirac Ndetan

outlook embeds the following assumptions: (1) $1B after-tax headwind from higher Associate Analyst

commodity costs, (2) $300M after-tax headwind from higher net interest and non- chirac.ndetan@ubs.com

operating income; (3) 20% tax tate, and (4) a $50M headwind from FX. We have +1-212-649 7501