POSCO Holdings: Q2 beat, Improving outlook for both Steel and Lithium

Research evidence excerpt

POSCO Holdings: Q2 beat, Improving outlook for both Steel and Lithium

30,819

lifting standalone OPM to 2.9% (vs 2.4% in Q126). Overseas steel earnings were 12/28E 46,232 35,964

broadly flat QoQ.

Yong-Suk Son, CFA

Q: Has the company’s outlook/guidance changed? Analyst

yongsuk.son@ubs.com

A: POSCO guided for further earnings improvement in H226. POSCO guides lower Q3

+82-2-3702 8804

production at POSCO Argentina due to winter seasonality and LP dryer replacement, but

sees this as temporary. Q4 earnings should improve further on full production, certified

product sales (~10% ASP premium) and higher margins from Phase 2. POSCO also

reiterated its long-term lithium assumptions of >40% brine OPM at lithium prices above

US$20/kg. Steel earnings should improve in Q3 as additional ASP increases offset initial

costs from the Gwangyang EAF startup. POSCO reaffirmed its capital allocation policy,

allocating 90% of subsidiary disposal proceeds to growth investment and 10% to

shareholder returns through buybacks/cancellation.

Valuation: Undemanding given steel and lithium growth outlook

POSCO trades at 0.39x 2027E P/BV vs 0.3x-0.9x range seen since 2022. We believe

current valuation does not fully reflect improving lithium business and bottoming steel

business. We maintain Buy and our W600,000 PT. Our SOTP based PT implies 0.8x

2027E P/BV.

Highlights (Wonb) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 77,127 72,688 69,095 72,509 76,239 79,029 78,710 81,159

EBIT (UBS) 3,531 2,174 1,827 2,966 4,627 5,716 5,178 4,994

Net earnings (UBS) 1,698 1,095 658 1,626 2,817 3,500 3,085 2,880

EPS (UBS, diluted) (Won) 21,524 14,172 8,687 21,473 37,211 46,232 40,743 38,042

DPS (net) (Won) 10,000 10,000 10,000 8,000 14,000 17,000 15,000 14,000