2Q26 results - Management sees stable demand into H2

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 results - Management sees stable demand into H2

. Q3 to be at least as good as Q3 2025. Perhaps the most important message

12/28E 2.89 3.39 17 3.55

from the Q&A was BASF stated that it expects group earnings to at least meet Q3

2025 levels under current conditions. Christian Bell, CFA

Analyst

3. Management does not expect a repeat of the sharp April-style pricing christian.bell@ubs.com

spike. While Chemicals and Materials benefited significantly from higher prices +44-20-7901 5493

and margins during Q2, BASF suggested that markets have largely adjusted to the

Priyanka Patel

new geopolitical backdrop. Management noted that chemical markets,

particularly in Asia, have normalised relatively quickly and that customers are priyanka.patel@ubs.com

showing less urgency to secure future supplies than they did during the initial +44-20-7568 0016

March-April disruption period. As a result, BASF believes there is less likelihood of

another March/April-style spike in customer buying and chemical pricing, without

material physical disruption.

EBITDA increased +16% / +4% / +6% across FY26 / FY27 / FY28

Our FY26 estimates increase reflects the stronger-than-expected H1 performance, and

we now sit towards the upper end of BASF's revised EBITDA guidance range (€6.9-

7.7bn), reflecting management's constructive commentary on current trading. We

estimate Q3 EBITDA of €1.5bn versus €1.4bn in Q3 2025, followed by Q4 EBITDA of

€1.2bn versus €1.0bn in the prior-year period. From 2027 onwards, we continue to

assume earnings growth, albeit at a more gradual pace as exceptional Q2 pricing

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 68,902 65,260 59,657 64,795 64,535 66,329 68,612 70,981

EBIT (UBS) 3,806 3,911 2,887 3,603 3,609 4,145 4,687 5,121