Ampol: JQ26 Result: Trading & shipping proves its worth

Research evidence excerpt

Ampol: JQ26 Result: Trading & shipping proves its worth

Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.2x

higher for longer in Asian refined product prices (than in oil prices).

EPS (UBS, diluted) (A$)

From To % ch Cons.

Trading revenue can be feast or famine, but downside risk is limited

12/26E 3.85 4.93 28 4.07

Ampol benefited from a long jet fuel position ahead of the Middle East conflict and 12/27E 2.49 2.73 10 2.43

heavily in the money hedges within F&I International (trading). EBITDA from Int. trading 12/28E 2.76 2.91 5 2.52

(excl. contrib. from Gull in '22) has averaged $37m per half over the last x8 halves

(1H22-2H25). While the actual result will be confirmed in Aug, we est. $259m in trading Tom Allen

EBITDA was realised over 1H26. While trading generates income during periods of Analyst

tom.allen@ubs.com

volatility, the downside risk outside of these opportunities is limited and so we lift our

+61-3-9242 6237

through the cycle earnings contrib. from F&I International to $90m pa having proven its

value this half in partic. We est. a 2H26 LRM of US$18.70/bbl, maintaining conservatism Shaun Cousins

while the 70 day turnaround is delivered at Lytton from 1Aug to 10 Oct. We lift F&I Aust Analyst

shaun.cousins@ubs.com

earnings from 2H26+ recognising upside risk of ALD growing vols as some large buyers

+61-2-9324 3844

over reliant on regional spot markets, seek to diversify fuel supply.

Harry Glass

Lift 2026-27E EPS by 10-28% on higher trading, refining and F&I earnings Associate Analyst

harry.glass@ubs.com

We lift 2026E EPS by 28% having lifted F&I Int EBITDA to ~$350m in 2026E, and lifting +61-3-9242 6053

2H26 LRM and higher vols in F&I Aust which carries into 2027E. We marginally lift our

lift our LRM in 2027+ expecting regional markers to settle structurally higher when