Fair Isaac Corporation: Focus on Sustainability of Pricing + Market Share

Research evidence excerpt

Fair Isaac Corporation: Focus on Sustainability of Pricing + Market Share

Global Research

30 July 2026ab

Fair Isaac Corporation Equities

United StatesFocus on Sustainability of Pricing + Market Share

Diversified Technology Services

12-month rating Neutral

Bottom Line

The FICO stock is indicating down ~10% after hours—almost double its implied ~5% 12m price target US$1,320.00

move—likely on FQ3 revenue miss + FY26 raise below Street. Amid ongoing industry

shifts including the FICO Direct License—still under review—by the GSEs. This coupled

Price (29 Jul 2026) US$1,373.08

with ongoing pilot following April announcement Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will start

allowing VantageScore use reinforce our view that volatility is unlikely to ease. While we RIC: FICO.N BBG: FICO US

wait for the Direct License Program [DLP] launch amid still uncertain pace of adoption

Trading data and key metrics

AND rate of performance fee adoption, FICO suggested signing agreements with

52-wk range US$1,879.55-922.37

partners and resellers with ~60% of mortgage volume, expecting to reach ~90%

volume. Amid the recent release of historical 10T data by the GSEs, we see this fueling Market cap. US$33.6b

the accuracy debate between BOTH scores as market participants analyze data and Shares o/s 24.5m (COM)

evaluate model strength—especially as 10T has grown to 70 mortgage lenders, Free float 97%

representing ~55% of volume generated by Top 50 mortgage originators. Combined Avg. daily volume ('000) 84.7

with recent comments from bureaus such as Equifax mentioning VantageScore Avg. daily value (m) US$100.6

adoption momentum, we expect investors to continue debating the pace and extent of Common s/h equity (09/26E) US$-4.88b

potential pricing increases as we wait for FY27 pricing.