Starbucks Sales Momentum Continues, Focus on Sustainability

Research evidence excerpt

Starbucks Sales Momentum Continues, Focus on Sustainability

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 7.5%

Forecast dividend yield 2.6%

Forecast stock return 10.1%

Market return assumption 9.3%

Forecast excess return 0.9%

Company Description

Starbucks Corporation is a global marketer and retailer of specialty coffee. In addition to sales

of coffee, tea, and other beverages and food items through company-operated stores,

Starbucks sells coffee and tea products and licenses trademarks through licensed stores and

grocery and food-service accounts. The company's portfolio of brands also includes Teavana,

Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi. Starbucks has three reporting operating segments: 1)

North America; 2) International; and 3) Channel Development.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Risk include but are not limited to: deteriorating macro-economic factors that could

negatively impact consumer spending (rising unemployment, low wage growth, high gas

prices, falling housing market); food safety incident at SBUX or another restaurant; increased

competition including in the consumer packaged coffee/tea business; risks related to a

franchise business models; significant commodity or labor cost inflation; changing consumer

eating trends; ability to identify and secure appropriate sites for new restaurants; effect of

changes to healthcare laws; failure of internal controls over financial reporting; adverse

weather conditions; the negative impact on existing restaurants from opening new

restaurants in existing markets; and the impact from new information or attitudes regarding

diet and health could result in changes in regulations or consumer preferences. Our price

target is based on an EV/EBITDA methodology on our NTM EBITDA estimates in 12 months.