Hesai Group: More than LiDAR; reiterate Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Hesai Group: More than LiDAR; reiterate Buy

Hesai Group UBS Research

UBS Research THESIS MAP Thesisa guideMapto our thinking and what´s where in this report

Pivotal Questions Q: Can the global LiDAR market CAGR exceed 40% in 2026-30? Who benefits most?

Yes, we expect a 43.6% CAGR for the global LiDAR market. For ADAS LiDAR, with LiDAR pricing

stabilising and adoption accelerating, we forecast global sales to expand from Rmb6bn in 2026E to

Rmb23bn in 2030E, a 39% CAGR. For robotics LiDAR, we forecast the global market to expand 5x

from 2026E to Rmb18bn in 2030E, and expect embodied/physical AI to unlock growth opportunities

for products beyond LiDAR. We are constructive on robotics as a second growth curve for LiDAR

suppliers, driven by robotic lawn mowers, robotaxis and robovans. As Chinese suppliers continue to

expand and upgrade their product portfolios, we believe they are well positioned to maintain their

global leadership.

China LiDAR sector: "From ADAS to robotics and physical AI; time to revisit" 7/30/2026

Q: Can Hesai's LiDAR business post a >30% revenue CAGR over 2026-30?

Yes. We forecast its LiDAR business to deliver a 31% revenue CAGR, supported by strong ties with EV

startups, rising penetration in traditional domestic OEMs and global customer wins, as well as strong

momentum in robotics LiDAR, driven by robotic lawn mowers, robotaxis and robovans.

Q: Can SGI become another growth driver for Hesai?

Yes. Hesai is expanding into physical AI infrastructure through SGI: Kosmo provides 3D training data,

while actuator products extend its reach into motion control, with initial order wins for both

products. We expect SGI to begin contributing revenue in 2026E and reach c.Rmb500m in 2027E.

Successful commercialization could unlock substantial upside by 2030E.