US Daily Data Recap: Real GDP up 1.5%, PCE inflation drops

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap: Real GDP up 1.5%, PCE inflation drops

Global Research

30 July 2026ab

US Daily Data Recap Economics

AmericasReal GDP up 1.5%, PCE inflation drops

Abigail Watt

Economist

Real GDP expanded 1.5% (saar) in Q2 weighed on by inventories and net exports. abigail.watt@ubs.com

+1-212-882 6929

Typically we'd abstract from noisy trade data but this now reflects a very real part of

US GDP with much of the strength in imports driven by strong demand for tech related Jonathan Pingle

inputs into the AI buildout. Real consumer spending was robust up 3.2% (saar) with a Economist

tax refund boost despite higher energy prices. We'd expect some of that resilience could jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

feed into Q3 and the unwind of the decline in Q2 inventories could imply a greater boost

to Q3 headline GDP. This shifting in the timing of activity could imply stronger real Alan Detmeister

GDP growth in Q3 but likely keeps real GDP up 2.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026. Economist

alan.detmeister@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1222

Headline PCE prices fell -0.11% in June on sharply lower gasoline prices, while core PCE

Amanda Wilcoxprices rose a modest 0.13%, both slightly softer than our translation and consensus. On

a 12-month basis, headline inflation dropped -0.50 pp to 3.67% in June and core eased amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

-0.12 pp to 3.29%, though both measures remain above year-ago and pre-Iran conflict +1-212-713 3899

levels. We expect core PCE inflation edges down only slightly in July, with annual NIPA

Jalen Nichols

revisions likely lowering core PCE price inflation for much of this year around -0.2 pp and

leaving year-end core PCE inflation at 3.0%. jalen.nichols@ubs.com

+1-212-882 6905

Real disposable incomes rose 0.3% and real spending rose 0.4% in June. Spending