OMV Downstream strength - 2Q26 Review

Research evidence excerpt

OMV Downstream strength - 2Q26 Review

€5.0/sh, which implies a payout ratio of 27% (ex 12/28E 6.93 7.63 10 6.47

BI dividends) and a total yield of 8% at the current share price. Joshua Stone

Analyst

Fuels estimates up, new PT of €68/sh joshua.stone@ubs.com

We increase our 2026-28E estimates by an average 10% which is led by an increase to +44-20-7901 5588

our Fuel estimates following a revision higher of our refining margin deck (see report). Henri Patricot, CFA

Our net income estimates are also supported by the mix of earnings leading to a lower Analyst

effective tax rate. This drives an 8% increase in our PT to €68/sh, which is set according henri.patricot@ubs.com

to a 50/50 blend between a SOTP and multiples approach using a long-run oil price of +33-14-888 3033

$75/bl and EV/DACF of 7.0x respectively. See Figure 6OMV-SOTPandpricetargetsumary for full details. Ellinor Cederstroem Palliotto

Associate Analyst

Key call takeaways: ellinor-cederstroem.palliotto@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 1823 Refining margins on an upwards trend - OMV reported a refining margin of

$20.33/bl for 2Q, although the company noted that crude differentials prevented

the full capture of the indicator margin. OMV raised its expectation for full year

margins to $20/bl from $10-15/bl citing extended volatility from: the closure of the

Hormuz, increased tension in the Red Sea, outages in Russia and low water levels

on the Rhine.

Refining availability to remain high - There is no significant maintenance

planned during 2H26, whilst also no outstanding hedges to limit the upside to

margins.

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Net earnings (UBS) 2,593 2,091 1,940 2,974 2,521 2,494 2,473 2,508

EPS (UBS, diluted) (€) 7.92 6.39 5.93 9.10 7.71 7.63 7.56 7.67