Floor & Decor: Smoother, but Still Hard

Research evidence excerpt

Floor & Decor: Smoother, but Still Hard

re winner that remains in the early innings of its

national growth opportunity, with significant runway for store expansion and earnings

growth once housing-related demand trends fully normalize. Together, this feedback

from the bulls implies FND earning $2.75 in 2028.

What did the bears say in response to this print?

Skeptics would likely argue that Floor & Decor’s 2Q results benefited from a meaningful

amount of non-recurring support that obscured weaker underlying earnings trends.

Based on management’s commentary, roughly $6 million of benefits in 2Q and an

additional $22 million expected in the second half appear to be offsetting what were

characterized as unforeseen headwinds, implying that core earnings power may be

weaker than reported results suggest. Adjusting for these items, bears could contend

that underlying EPS was down materially year-over-year and potentially pressured

further by tariff-related interest benefits. While the better-than-expected comp

performance was encouraging, skeptics may focus on the quarter-to-date sales

deceleration and argue that the company still faces a difficult path to generating

sustainable EPS growth. Looking ahead, investors will eventually need to see earnings

growth beyond the benefit of one-time items, particularly as the company laps the extra

week and approximately $0.20 of temporary earnings support. Together, this feedback

from the bears implies FND earning less than $2.25 in 2028.

Valuation: Risk-reward is balanced

Our $60 price target (was $55) is ~25x our revised CY'28 EPS estimate. We roll our

valuation forward, which now reflects ~25x our CY'28 EPS estimate (our prior price

target was ~25x our prior CY'27 EPS estimate).

Floor & Decor 31 July 2026 ab 3