SpaceX: Lockup expirations and Q2 - Beginning this week

Research evidence excerpt

SpaceX: Lockup expirations and Q2 - Beginning this week

2 August 2026

Douglas S. Harned, Ph.D.

+1 917 344 8430

Global Aerospace & Defense douglas.harned@bernsteinsg.com

Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.Space Exploration Technologies Corporation

+1 213 559 5917

Rating stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Nestor Wester

+44 20 7676 7067

Price Target nestor.wester@bernsteinsg.com

SPCX 239.00 USD Specialist Sales

Steve Song

+1 917 344 8401

steve.song@bernsteinsg.com

Our investor discussions regarding SpaceX have been against a backdrop of a large number

Close Date 31 Jul 2026

of lockups expiring this week and through December (and into 2027). SpaceX used an

SPCX Close Price (USD) 108.37

unusually complex scheme with nine main unlock points instead of one traditional 180-day

Price Target (USD) 239.00

expiry. The design staggers insider selling over roughly the first six months post-IPO, with

Upside/(Downside) 121%

longer lockups for some institutions and for Elon Musk personally into mid-2027. Lockup

52-Week Range 225.64/107.01

expirations begin after the company’s Q2 reporting on August 4th. As the lockup timing is well SPX 7,489.72

known, expectations have already placed pressure on SpaceX shares. We do not attempt FYE Dec

to predict how shares will move as expirations come up in succession into December. But, Div Yield NA

we have found many investors unwilling to buy SpaceX shares in the interim, based on Market Cap (USD) (B) 1,426.06

fundamentals, given the lockup overhang that will exist at least into December. EV (USD) (B) 1,439.70

Despite the fact that lockups create an overhang, we still believe that the company’s Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

messaging in its Q2 report will be important. As we stressed in our initiation report, Absolute (%) NA (36.6) NA NA