Orizon Valorização de Resíduos SA

Research evidence excerpt

Orizon Valorização de Resíduos SA

management rather than in the

12/28E 7.55 5.82

underlying economics of the business. More importantly, much of the earnings

volatility observed in companies with similar cases during this phase reflects Giuliano Ajeje

temporary accounting dynamics associated with the ramp-up of newly Analyst

commissioned assets, where financing costs and depreciation are recognized before giuliano.ajeje@ubs.com

revenues reach steady-state levels. +55-11-2767 6371

Henrique Simoes

Biomethane Ramp-Up Strengthens the Growth Outlook Associate Analyst

henrique.simoes@ubs.com

In fact, several of the operating indicators that matter most for the investment case

+55-11-2767 6308

continue to move in a favorable direction. Importantly, while market attention

remains focused on short-term earnings noise, several potentially positive catalysts Julia Ongarato

remain ahead, including the first CEGOB certification, greater transparency around Associate Analyst

julia.ongarato@ubs.com

capital allocation, the publication of a combined reporting framework, and

+55-11-2767 6694

continued progress across the biomethane portfolio. At the same time, we continue

to see a sizable growth runway beyond the projects currently under development,

supported by a combination of greenfield opportunities, potential increases in

ownership stakes across existing joint ventures, and the broader expansion of the

combined Orizon-Vital platform. Regulatory developments also remain

constructive: although the issuance of the first CEGOB certificate has been

Highlights (R$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 776 903 1,050 2,544 4,283 4,867 5,208 5,500

EBIT (UBS) 169 228 275 723 1,389 1,726 1,877 2,039

Net earnings (UBS) 40 44 46 343 815 1,042 1,160 1,317