US Economic Perspectives: FOMC: on hold & looking for signals

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Perspectives: FOMC: on hold & looking for signals

Global Research

29 July 2026ab

US Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasFOMC: on hold & looking for signals

Jonathan Pingle

Economist

Chairman Warsh: "The Fed is on the case" jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to leave the target range for the federal

funds rate unchanged at the July meeting, in line with our expectations. Also in line with Abigail Watt

Economistour base case, FRB of Cleveland President Beth Hammack, FRB of Minneapolis President

abigail.watt@ubs.com

Neel Kashkari, and FRB of Dallas President Lorie Logan voted in favor of raising rates by +1-212-882 6929

0.25 pp.

Alan Detmeister

In a wide ranging press conference, Chairman Warsh avoided providing much clarity on alan.detmeister@ubs.com

the path ahead, or even what was behind today's decision. He did again reiterate the +1-212-713 1222

FOMC's commitment to deliver price stability. The message was delivered with

Amanda Wilcox

determined language. Economist

amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

Within the other topics, we heard the promise of AI and productivity growth. Warsh +1-212-713 3899

referred back to his testimony, and at that time he said it was a structurally Jalen Nichols

disinflationary force. He wondered if the current attention to price pressures from the AI Economist

build out was akin to looking for your keys under the lamp post. He's made similar jalen.nichols@ubs.com

statements recently noting that we measure and watch the demand side, but there is +1-212-882 6905

the less visible supply side too, whose expansion can be disinflationary.

In an answer to Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal he said "I think we've got a

reasonable sense of what aggregate demand looks like in this economy.