Key Call: MediaTek Inc.: Meaningful step-up in TPU guidance; conviction rising on share gains and execution

Research evidence excerpt

Key Call: MediaTek Inc.: Meaningful step-up in TPU guidance; conviction rising on share gains and execution

r recent sector deep dive on Intel's EMIB-T, that we believe Ibiden is making good

12/26E 63.77 67.48 6 66.93

progress and should have reached a reasonable 50% yield for trial production.

12/27E 180.60 181.09 0 130.71

Unimicron also showed a lot more commitment on EMIB-T earlier this week, which

12/28E 299.18 300.76 1 252.85

makes us more comfortable with substrate supply for v9 to reach >2mn units in 2028

and drive US$35bn TPU sales for MediaTek. MediaTek's board also approved a US$5bn Sunny Lin

financing budget to secure and invest in supply chain capacity when necessary—we Analyst

view this as essential in further enhancing MediaTek's positioning in Cloud/Edge AI by sunny.lin@ubs.com

leveraging its scale, especially with the increasing supply chain shortage. +886-2-8722 7346

Ryan Sun

Q3 sales better than feared; Q4 to strongly inflect Associate Analyst

ryan-za.sun@ubs.com

Q3 sales is guided to grow 0-5% QoQ, above recent buyside expectations of flat to 5%

+886-2-8722 7267

QoQ decline, in our view. The strength is supported by smart edge, new flagship 5G

SoC, and price hike to pass through supply chain cost. We have flagged that MediaTek Christine Chen, CFA

should raise pricing for most products by 5-10% from Sept. Based on full year sales Associate Analyst

christine.chen@ubs.com

guidance of high single digit growth, Q4 sales is implied to grow >30% QoQ, through

+886-2-8722 7361

>US$2bn sales from TPU v8 and flagship smartphone seasonality.

Valuation: maintain Key Call Buy and target of NT$6,500

We fine tune 2026/27E/28E EPS to NT$67.6/181.5/301.4. Our 2027/28E EPS are well

above consensus by 39%/19%. MediaTek's higher conviction on TPU opportunity,