Mastercard Inc Q2 2026 Earnings Recap

Research evidence excerpt

Mastercard Inc Q2 2026 Earnings Recap

Mastercard FX volatility), we would estimate the impact to Visa's International

transaction revenue to be ~350-400bps. Thus the delta between Visa and Mastercard

cross-border/international revenue spread in CQ2 was likely closer to ~12% vs. ~16%

when adjusting for this factor alone; 2) Visa includes contra revenue from rebates in its

"gross revenue" reporting whereas Mastercard includes rebates in its separate rebates

and incentives contra revenue line item (we detail this more in our Demystifying the

Models: a Modeling Reference note). As a result, client mix dynamics could be more

impactful (e.g., quarters where more of the volume growth is driven from larger

merchants [e.g., Amazon, etc.] or issuers). Additionally, the Trip.com portfolio flip could

also play a part (potentially lower yielding than total cross-border portfolio when

accounting for rebates); 3) All of Visa Direct's cross-border volume is included (a small

portion of cross-border volume but growing in the high 30%s [UBSe]) whereas

Mastercard only includes AFT volumes from Mastercard Move in its volume metric. Visa

Direct cross border volume is lower yielding than total cross border and thus is a

headwind to the revenue to volume growth spread, whereas Mastercard, given not all

volume is included but the majority of revenue, is less dilutive to potentially net neutral;

and 4) Varying levels of pricing.

Cross-border volume considerations: Cross-border ex Intra-Europe volume growth

mildly decelerated in Q2 to 11% YoY FXN (from 12% YoY in Q1), while on a July MTD

growth accelerated from Q2 levels to ~12% (although decelerated ~3pts from June

which benefitted from the soccer world cup, retail promotion timing in the period, and

days mix).