COIN Q2: Great strategy but looking for inspiring execution

Research evidence excerpt

COIN Q2: Great strategy but looking for inspiring execution

Gautam Chhugani +91 226 842 1416 gautam.chhugani@bernsteinsg.com 31 July 2026

DETAILS

On the stock, we still maintain Outperform. COIN stock remains correlated with broader crypto market and with Bitcoin still

consolidating (down ~50%), we believe, there is less downside and more opportunity ahead to build a great blockchain financial

services platform. Coinbase is a crypto market leader with strong lead on stablecoins. Coinbase has built a strong institutional

business. It has a strong product and tech team to pursue long-term opportunities such as agentic finance. Clarity Act could be

a near term market catalyst, but it is a touch and go given the tight timelines before the Senate heads for a recess. Thus, either

we get a crypto market catalyst or Coinbase executes harder to break out from the crypto correlation. Control the controllable

remains a sensible approach, in our view.

We share key takeaways from the result below:

Trading metrics:

• Coinbase reached an all-time high of 10.3% in crypto trading volume market share - across both spot and derivatives

globally. Total spot trading volume was $146Bn (-24% QoQ) with a blended take rate of 38bps.

• Consumer crypto spot trading volume declined 24% QoQ, vs. broader crypto spot volumes declining by 20%. Consumer

transaction revenue declined 20% QoQ to $452Mn (vs. $567Mn in 1Q2026), supported by prediction markets revenue,

which doubled QoQ, running at $100Mn ARR.

• Institutional transaction revenue declined 26% QoQ to $100Mn (vs. $136Mn in 1Q2026).

• Crypto derivatives volume was flat QoQ despite the derivatives market being down 12%, implying share gains. Coinbase

received CFTC no-action relief to bring US customers into the global perp liquidity pool.