Samsung Electronics: UBSResearch THESIS MAP A guide to our thinking and what‘s where in this report

Research evidence excerpt

Samsung Electronics: UBSResearch THESIS MAP A guide to our thinking and what‘s where in this report

uy / memory top pick (link; link) was that as the largest memory player, it can secure

From To % ch Cons.

larger increments of capacity for customers over time. We would estimate that the 12/26E 48,568 45,174 -7 47,438

customers likely to have signed/to sign LTAs with Samsung include the large US/China 12/27E 89,397 77,261 -14 66,292

hyperscalers and the largest US OEMs (on top of the supply agreement to Samsung's 12/28E 96,277 87,673 -9 68,181

MX/CE). 2/ HBM: We believe Samsung is nearing completion of 2027 contracts for

larger customers. We continue to forecast Samsung to reach 41% HBM industry bit Nicolas Gaudois

supply share by 2027, slightly ahead of SK Hynix (39%) and Micron (20%). 3/ Capex: Analyst

nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com

we increase our semis capex forecasts to Won71tn/86tn/96tn for '26/27/28E from

+65-6495 5148

Won70tn/84tn/92tn as the Pyeongtaek P4/P5 ramp accelerates as well as fab

infrastructure build. Jimmy Yoon

Analyst

jimmy.yoon@ubs.com

Lowering forecasts on LTAs / costs / FX but above consensus

+65-6495 4617

We lower 3Q26E OP to Won123tn from Won134tn largely on lower DRAM ASPs (largely

Luke Yoo

due to LTAs) and to a lesser extent costs (profit sharing) and FX, but remain 9% above

consensus. We adjust down '26/27/28E OP by 8%/14%/9% to Won407tn/722tn/819tn luke.yoo@ubs.com

respectively for the same reasons, still 29% above '27E consensus. Recall LTAs lower +82-2-3702 8132

memory ASPs in an upcycle, but are accretive to margins/ROE through-cycle.

Valuation: Won535k from 550k; APAC Key Call Buy

We value Samsung ordinary shares at 3.23x NTM P/BV (was 3.22x) considering our LT

ROE estimate of 30.4% (was 30.3%) and CoE of 9.4% (U/C) - on slightly reduced BVPS