Q2 beat and guidance raised. Revenue upside risks remain. Buy.

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 beat and guidance raised. Revenue upside risks remain. Buy.

of their agentic mortgage product, for example. While we forecast a fairly sharp

12/27E 2.84 2.91 3 2.81

normalisation of volume growth over the coming quarters, we believe this is

12/28E 3.17 3.26 3 3.20

conservative. Considering our conservatism still results in our forecasts being at the top

of the (updated) guidance, we believe there is further upside risk to guidance driven by Johan Ekblom, CFA

volume growth (with potential additional benefit from swap rates holding for longer). Analyst

johan.ekblom@ubs.com

Fee income remains a structural growth story at ING +44-20-7568 3580

The upgrade to FY26 fee income guidance was somewhat expected (we believe), given Joshua Humphreys

strong markets in H1 and heightened activity levels. We believe the additional FY27 Associate Analyst

joshua.humphreys@ubs.com

guidance upgrade was largely unexpected and points towards stronger underlying

+44-20-7567 0385

trends rather than beneficial temporary effects. In Q2, ING revamped its product

offering with a subscription service, with uptake fairly strong. However there was a

temporary headwind (magnitude unclear) from attractive incentives to boost uptake,

which will flip to a tailwind in the back half of the year according to mgmt. While the

scale is unclear, we believe this was a driving factor behind the confidence to upgrade

the FY27 guide.

Valuation: Trading a 10.1x 2027E EPS and 1.7x TNAV for a 18% ROTE

While more expensive on both an absolute and relative basis vs. its own history, we

believe ING shares still appear attractively valued, when considering the EPS growth,

capital distributions and volume growth potential. We remain Buy rated.

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E