Global Rates Strategy: Weekly Supply - Expect a volatile September given below-average 2026 run-rate

Research evidence excerpt

Global Rates Strategy: Weekly Supply - Expect a volatile September given below-average 2026 run-rate

026(estimate),yelowshadedareasindicateremainingsyndications(asperourforecast)andgrenshadedcelsindicate(remaining)newbondisuesviaauctions).

Italy and Spain have cancelled their mid-month medium- and long-term auctions,

while Italy has also cancelled its August linker BTPei auctions. We also expect

France to issue less at their mid-August auctions than in June and July, while

Germany’s planned August issuance is below July levels. The summer supply lull

has arrived.

Germany, France and Italy are running below last year’s issuance pace, positioning

them as the main drivers of remaining gross supply this year. Together, they are

expected to make up around 78%, or €367bn, of issuance, while Belgium, Finland

and Ireland are slightly ahead of last year’s pace.

In net terms, August–December issuance is expected to total €170bn, with Italy

and France accounting for 65% of the supply (Figure 16Eurozonesovereignbondisuance*(€bn)(asof31Jul2026)).

With the EGB syndication markets expected to reopen in the final week of August,

much of the catch-up should occur then. Quarterly DV01 supply was tracking

slightly lower in Q1 (Figure 4.DV01suplytopickupinQ3), as EGB issuance was concentrated more in the belly

of the curve than at the long end early in the year. Given the below-average supply

run-rate so far and seasonally light August issuance, we expect DV01 supply to

catch up in September.

The EC has issued a 30-year bond in each of the past two September syndication

windows, so the week of 14 September could see another long-dated EU bond.

The UK DMO also plans a modest 30-year syndication in September. Combined

with EGB supply, this should make for a busy government and SSA market.