Steven Madden Ltd: Solid 2Q26 Report; Raise PT, but Stay Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Steven Madden Ltd: Solid 2Q26 Report; Raise PT, but Stay Neutral

Steven Madden Ltd UBS Research

UBS Research THESIS MAP Thesisa guideMapto our thinking and what´s where in this report

Pivotal Questions Q: How much will the global footwear industry grow?

We expect it to rise at a normalized low- to mid-single-digit pace, highly skewed to sports footwear.

Athleisure should continue driving this category at a compelling mid to high-single-digit rate,

underpinned by prevailing themes like casualization and healthy lifestyles. SHOO has gradually

pivoted its portfolio into more casual styles, which implies it could capture part of this rising demand.

Q: Can Steve Madden drive revenue growth in a lackluster consumer spending

environment?

Yes. We anticipate SHOO's revenue rises ~13.9% y/y in FY26E as SHOO benefits from solid trends for

its Steve Madden brand within the US DTC channel as well as benefit from annualizing its acquisition

of the Kurt Geiger brand. At the same time, we expect pressured trends within Steve Madden's

legacy wholesale business, driven by price increase resistance from SHOO's private label and Off-Price

channel partners. Our long term outlook forecasts total SHOO sales rise at a ~7.0% CAGR annually

post FY26E.

Q: What is SHOO's long term operating margin opportunity?

We think FY26 margins will expand ~75 bps to ~8.4% vs. 6.9% in FY25. We expect this to be driven

by favorable brand mix to SHOO's higher margin Kurt Geiger brand and modest tariff recapture in

2H26. Our long term outlook forecasts that operating margins will expand over time and level out in

the ~LDD% range.

UBS VIEW We believe SHOO has multiple LT global growth opportunities given its position as a leader within the

women's fashion footwear industry.